April Newsletter Highlights

  • GDP Growth in the first quarter of 2019 is expected to come in well below the pace seen in the past several quarters.
  • This slowdown has been partly a function of timing and partly an extraordinarily bad December and January for consumer spending.
  • Moderation rather than a serious slowdown for the rest of the year is expected with 2019 GDP growth to be around 2.0-2.5%.
  • Existing home sales and housing starts both ended 2018 down more than 10% from year ago levels.
  • A slowing, but still growing, global economy should be supportive of fixed income markets. Global inflation pressures remain subdued and are unlikely to drive short term changes in world monetary policy.
  • U.S. equity markets resumed their uptrend following a short pause late in 2018. The economy, however, continues to slow, the yield curve has inverted, and year-over-year corporate earnings growth will likely be negative when first quarter results are reported. Keeping a long-term outlook on your equity returns is critical.